Socioeconomic Indicators
In 2008, the Republic of Belarus preserved positive dynamics of industrial and investment activities in socioeconomic development of its key economy sectors, another token of the robustness of Belarusian economy amid the global financial crisis in late 2008 and subsequent recession in a number of strongest economies.
Thus, in 2008, the GDP made 110% against 2007, while the GDP energy intensity went down by 8.4%.
The share of added value in the GDP in industry made 29.4%, in agriculture – 8.8%, construction sector – 8.9%, in the field of transport and communications – 7.8%, in trade and public catering sectors – 10.7%.
The GDP growth was accompanied by the reduction of GDP energy intensity. The GDP energy intensity in January-October of 2008 decreased 7.9% as compared to the similar period of 2007 (forecast for the year – minus7-8%).
In 2008, in industry, the index of physical volume of production made 110.8%. Last year's steps made by the Government towards stimulating investment activities and launching business planning of investment projects resulted in increase of investments into fixed assets by 22.9%. Out of these investments, 27.7% was used by industry, 17.9% – by housing construction, 14.6% – by agriculture, and 8.4% – by transport.
The production of consumer goods in January- November of 2008 made 112.4% to the level of the correspondent period of 2007 (forecast for the year – 110-111%), including food products – 113.2% (forecast for the year – 108-109%) , non-food products – 111.9% (respectively 110-111%). The indicators of the year 2007 were 108.1 %, 103.5 % and 112.3% respectively.
One of the major trends to increase economy efficiency is cost reduction of products manufacturing, in particular, reduction of products materials-output ratio.
The reduction of material consumption level for January-October of 2007 made 2.2% over the Republic on the whole, which exceeded the forecast indictor for 2008 (minus 1.5%).
January- November of 2008 saw the manufacturing of agricultural products in all categories of husbandries increased 8.9% to the level of the corresponding period of the previous year, with the forecast of 2008 growths amounting to 7-8%. For comparison: growth rate for January-November of 2007 made 104.4% to the level of the similar period of the previous year.
The measures taken by the government to encourage investment activity, investment projects business planning arrangement induced an increase at the rate of 21% in fixed capital investments in January-November of 2008 as compared to the same level of 2007 (forecast for 2008 – growth at the rate of 15-17%). The rate of fixed capital investments growth made 114.9% in January-November of 2007 to the same level of the previous year.
The costs to purchase machines, equipment, vehicles made 124.2% to the level of January-November of 2007. The share of all the above costs in total investments made 43% (in January-November of 2007 – 44.2%).
Fixed capital investments in production purpose object exceeded the level of January-November by 20.9%. Alongside with that, the share of production purpose investments in total investments made 64.1%.
18.1% of total investments were allocated for dwelling-houses construction, or 119.2% to the level of January-November of 2007.
The main short-term targets for social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus in 2008 were to commission 5200 thous. sq. meters of accommodation at the cost of all financing sources. January-November of 2008 saw the commissioning of 4311.3 thous. sq. meters of dwelling houses total areas, which made 82.9% of the task specified for the year.
Rural inhabited localities saw the commissioning of 1338.7 thous. sq. meters of accommodation floor area, which made 30.8% of the total commissioning over the Republic.
The results of foreign economic activity over the Republic on the whole were characterized by the following indicators.
The volume of foreign trade in goods and services on methodology of balance of payment in actual prices made 150.3% to the level of January-October of 2007 (the forecast for the year – 114.-115.5%), including exports – 150.2% (forecast 116-117%), imports – 150.4 (forecast – 112.5 – 113.5%).
January-October of 2008 saw the deficit of balance of trade in goods and services at the rate of 2932.4 mln. USD (the deficit for 2008 was expected at the rate of 1400-1420 mln. USD). The deficit of foreign trade in goods amounted to 4361.7 mln. USD, in services – 1429.3 mln. USD.
The January-October of 2008 economic growth enabled to maintain the tendency of outrunning growth of real income of the population.
The real income of the population (adjusted to consumer price index) increased by 12.1% in January-October of 2008 as compared to the corresponding period of 2007, with the 2008 growth forecast at the rate of 9-10%.
January-October of 2008 saw a maintained tendency to increase salaries of workers employed in the economic sector. According to the National Statistical Committee, the nominal accrued monthly average salary of workers in the Republic on the whole in January-October of 2008 made 867 thousand Belarusian rubles, or 406.5 USD, having increased by 25.9% as compared to the same period of 2007. The salary in October made 958.4 thousand Belarusian rubles, or 451.8 US dollars and increased compared to October 2007 made 29.7%, which exceeded growth rate provided by the forecast (118.8%).
The nominal accrued monthly average salary of workers employed in public sector in January-October of 2008 made 695.3 thousand Belarusian rubles, or 326 USD, having increased by 15.3% as compared to January-October of 2007. The salary in October made712.4 thousand Belarusian rubles, or 338.5 US dollars and increased compared to October 2007 by 16%, which exceeded growth rate provided by the forecast (114.8%).
About Socioeconomic Development of the Republic of Belarus
The real wage increased by 9.5% in January-October of 2008 as compared to the correspondent period of the previous year over the entire Republic. The increase by 1.6% was noted in October.
The situation on the labour market continues to be stable and controlled, unemployment stays within the socially accepted limits. The level of registered unemployment as of the end of November of 2008 was equal to 0.8% to the number of economically active population (forecast for late 2008 ranges from 1.2 to 1.4%).
Positive tendencies for products and services sales are preserved on the consumer market in January-November of 2008.
Retail trade turnover, including public catering thorough all market outlets increased by 22.3% as compared to the similar period of 2007, with the forecast for growth being at the rate of 10-11%.
One of the major trends of social and economic policy remains to be development of service branches and increase in volume of fee-based services rendered to the population.
The growth rate of fee-based services rendering to the population through all market outlets is at the level of 113.8% to the level of October of 2007, with the forecast for growth being at the rate of 109-110%.
State owned organizations rendered 56.4% of fee-based services total level to the population. The share of state owned organizations in rendering of fee-based services made 36.4%. January-November of 2008 saw composite index of consumer prices, marking inflation, made 112% or 101% per month on average.
Financial results of the real sector of the Republic economy can be characterized by the following indicators. Following the results of January-October of 2008, the profitability of products, work and services sold in the entire national economy made 15.5% against 12.3% for the corresponding period of 2007, sales profitability made 8.7% against 7.2% respectively. The profitability of products, work and services sold by industrial enterprises for January-October of 2008 made 17.3% (for January-October of 2007 – 13.2), sales profitability - 12% (for January-October of 2007 – 9.5%).
About Socioeconomic Development of the Republic of Belarus
In summary, following the results of national economy activity in January-November of 2008 we can conclude that socioeconomic development of the Republic of Belarus maintained positive dynamics of production and investment activities in the key branches of the economy. As a result, for eleven months the Republic managed to accomplish 17 out of 19 major parameters of the socioeconomic development forecast for 2008 approved by the Decree № 565 of the President of the Republic of Belarus dated December 18, 2007.
Main Socioeconomic Indicators of the Republic of Belarus
Indicator | U/m | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
GDP, nominal | bn. RUB | 17173.2 | 26138.3 | 36564.8 | 49991.8 | 65067.1 | 79267 | 96087.2 | 128828,8 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 104.7 | 105 | 107 | 111.4 | 109.4 | 110 | 108.2 | 110* |
GDP deflator index | % | 179.6 | 145 | 130.7 | 122.7 | 119.0 | 110.8 | 112.1 | 120,6 |
Industrial output | bn. RUB. | 18611.8 | 24912.2 | 32386.8 | 48530.1 | 62545.4 | 77267.0 | 91503.8 | 127509,9 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 105.9 | 104.5 | 107.1 | 115.9 | 110.5 | 111.4 | 108.5 | 110,8* |
Price index in industry | % | 171.8 | 140.4 | 137.5 | 124.1 | 112.1 | 108.3 | 116.3 | 114,5 |
Investment in fixed assets | bn. RUB. | 3049.3 | 4484.6 | 6684.3 | 10243.9 | 15095.9 | 20374.1 | 25266.8 | 35883,6 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 97 | 106 | 120.8 | 120.9 | 120 | 132.2 | 115.1 | 122,9 |
Dwelling houses commissioning | thous. sq.m | 3009 | 2811 | 3019 | 3501 | 3786 | 4101 | 4678 | 5146,7 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 85.3 | 93.4 | 107.7 | 115.7 | 108.1 | 108.3 | 114.2 | 110,3 |
Agricultural output | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 101.8 | 100.7 | 106.6 | 112.6 | 101.7 | 106 | 104.1 | 108,9 |
Retail turnover | bn. RUB | 8171.2 | 11909.5 | 14562 | 19534 | 25230.4 | 31061.8 | 38327.5 | 50915,3 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 128.2 | 111.5 | 110.3 | 111.5 | 120 | 117.4 | 115.3 | 120,5 |
Fee-based services to population | bn. RUB | 1367 | 2496 | 4049 | 5212.4 | 6776.2 | 8307.2 | 9013.4 | 12607,6 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 109 | 108.7 | 111.2 | 112.9 | 115.3 | 111.2 | 116.3 | 113,9 |
Foreign trade turnover (without services) | mln. USD | 15737 | 17113.2 | 21503.6 | 30264.5 | 32687.4 | 42084.9 | 53013.7 | 72385 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 98.5 | 108.7 | 125.7 | 140.7 | 108 | 128.7 | 126.0 | 136,7 |
Export of goods | mln. USD. | 7450.6 | 8020.9 | 9945.6 | 13773.7 | 15979.3 | 19733.7 | 24339.3 | 32902,1 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 101.7 | 107.6 | 124.0 | 138.5 | 116 | 123.5 | 123.3 | 135,5 |
Import of goods | mln. USD | 8286.4 | 9092.3 | 11558.0 | 16490.8 | 16708.1 | 22351.2 | 28674.4 | 39482,9 |
Growth rates vs previous year | % | 95.8 | 109.7 | 127.1 | 142.7 | 101.3 | 133.6 | 128.3 | 137,6 |
Balance | mln. USD. | -835.8 | -1071.4 | -1612.4 | -2717.1 | -728.8 | -2617.5 | -4335.1 | 6580,8 |
Real wage | % | 129.6 | 107.9 | 103.2 | 117.4 | 120.9 | 117.3 | 109.5 | 109,9 |
Real cash incomes | % | 128.1 | 104.1 | 103.9 | 109.8 | 118.4 | 117.8 | 114.7 | 112,7 |
Number of unemployed as of the end of the period | thous. employees | 102.9 | 130.5 | 136.1 | 83 | 67.9 | 52 | 44.1 | 37,3 |
as % vs economically active population | % | 2.3 | 3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0,8 |
Consumer price index (average annual) | % | 161.1 | 142.6 | 128.4 | 118.1 | 110.3 | 107 | 108.4 | 114,8 |
Average monthly growth in consumer price index | % | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1,0 |
Consolidated budget deficit, as % of GDP | % | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.04 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1,4** |
Note: Rates are presented in comparable prices.
*) Given the changed calculation methodology of the index of physical volume of industrial production.
**) Consolidated budget net surplus.
